Econ Mornings: April 14th, 2025
Macro releases and commentary released the morning of April 14th, 2025
(all times are in EST)
March Trade Surplus Exceeds Expectations as China Sees Surge in Exports to US Market
Released: April 13, 2025 22:00 - Link
China's trade balance turned positive in March with a surplus of $102.6 billion, exceeding expectations and marking a significant turnaround from February's deficit. Exports soared 46.0% MoM and rose 12.4% YoY, driven by US companies' surge in orders ahead of potential tariffs, while imports increased 15.2% MoM but declined -4.3% YoY, with Q1 2025 imports falling -7.0% YoY. Notably, exports to the US surged 44.3% MoM, from $27.8 billion in February to $40.1 billion in March.
Japan's Industrial Production Growth Slows to 2.3% MoM in February
Released: April 14, 2025 00:30
Japan's industrial production growth slowed to 2.3% MoM in February, revising downwards from the initial estimate of 2.5%. The total shipment segment remained unchanged at 3.0% MoM, while inventories continued to decline by -1.7% MoM. However, the operating ratio fell -1.1% MoM, marking a downward trend from 4.3% YoY in the same period last year. Notably, total production capacity has fallen or remained stable for four consecutive months, and is down -2.2% YoY, its weakest pace in over two years.
Global Export Conditions See Uptick Amid Rebound in Machinery Sales
Released: April 14, 2025 04:00 - Link
This morning's macro data showed an uptick in global export conditions, with Germany's Export Conditions Index reaching its highest level since May 2024 at 50.9, driven by a rebound in machinery & equipment sales (51.6) that bucked the overall manufacturing export slump. In contrast, automobiles & auto parts saw the steepest decline (-1.6 pts), while new export orders were still among the strongest in three years at 48.3 MoM. European business activity picked up for the first time since May 2024, and Asia's export conditions remained positive albeit easing slightly. Notably, North America showed a mixed picture, with US trade tariffs having a marked impact on Canada and Mexico's economic performance.
Spain's Business Confidence Index Sees Mixed Update With Stronger Expectations for Future Quarters
Released: April 14, 2025 04:00 - Link
This morning's macro updates brought a mixed bag for Spain's business community, with the Business Confidence Index posting a 0.1% QoQ increase in Q2 2025, a slower pace than the 0.5% MoM gain in Q1. The transport & accommodation sector was the standout performer, rising 1.6% QoQ, while the "other services" sector saw a notable decline of -1.1% QoQ. However, optimism about future quarters rebounded sharply, with 11.2% of businesses expecting better times ahead, up from 4.1% in Q1 and the highest level in over two years. In contrast, views on previous quarters were more subdued, with only 4.5% seeing the current quarter as favorable, down from 11.3%.
Canada's Wholesale Trade Growth Slows to 0.3% Year-over-Year Gain
Released: April 14, 2025 08:30 - Link
Canada's wholesale trade growth slowed to a 0.3% MoM increase in February, slightly revised down from the initial estimate of 0.4% MoM. Notably, sales grew in two of the seven subsectors, accounting for 40.3% of total wholesale sales, with the machinery, equipment and supplies subsector driving the largest gain (+7.1% MoM). In contrast, oil and oil products wholesale sales declined by -9.4% MoM and -13.4% YoY. Meanwhile, wholesale inventories rose 2.2% MoM to $130.6 billion in February, with all seven subsectors experiencing growth for the first time since September 2022, led by a notable +4.2% MoM increase in the machinery, equipment and supplies sector to $40.0 billion.
Gas Prices See Brief Respite, But Remained Up for Year
Released: April 14, 2025 09:00 - Link
Gasoline prices took a breather this week, with the national average falling -8.2 cents to $3.13 MoM, but still up 7.8 cents YOY and down -46.9 cents YoY from last April. Meanwhile, diesel prices decreased -4.8 cents to $3.546 per gallon, and the median US gas price is $2.99 per gallon, a decrease of -10 cents MoM and -14 cents vs national avg.
Cass Freight Index Sees Modest Rebound Amidst Ongoing Trade Uncertainty
Released: April 14, 2025 10:00 - Link
The Cass Freight Index reported a modest decline of -2.1% MoM and -5.3% YoY in March, slightly reversing the previous month's bounce due to adverse weather conditions in January. However, despite this short-term fluctuation, pre-tariff shipping is expected to surge in Q2 as shippers take advantage of a 90-day tariff pause, although this will likely be offset by ongoing trade tensions with China and other countries. Freight expenditures rose 1.5% MoM but remained -2.0% YoY, suggesting significant price increases, while freight rates increased 3.7% MoM and 3.5% YoY, on track for low- to mid-single-digit growth in 2025.
March Retail Sales See Biggest Growth So Far in 2025
Released: April 14, 2025 11:00 - Link
March retail sales (ex gas and autos) surged 0.60% MoM, driven by a year-over-year gain of 4.75%, marking the highest growth so far in 2025. Core retail sales, excluding restaurants, also saw a boost of 0.40% MoM and 5.07% YoY. Industry-wise, food services & drinking places stood out with a notable 1.48% MoM increase, followed by clothing (+0.76%), digital products (+0.79%), and groceries (+0.65%). In contrast, building & garden supplies led the decline with a -0.81% MoM drop, followed by health & personal care (-0.44%) and electronics & appliances (-0.29%).
Short-term Inflation Expectations Rise Sharply According To NY Fed Survey
Released: April 14, 2025 11:00 - Link
The latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations for March revealed a jump in short-term inflation expectations, with median 1-year ahead inflation rising 0.5 ppts to 3.6%, the highest since October 2023. Notably, this increase was driven by respondents' views on household financial situations worsening, with 30% expecting a poorer situation one year from now, the highest level since October 2023. Meanwhile, mean unemployment expectations surged 4.6 ppts to 44.0%, and the perceived probability of losing one's job increased by 1.6 ppts to 15.7%, with this trend being most pronounced among those earning below $50,000.
Other data releases and commentary:
The 60/40 Portfolio Continues to Underperform, Released: 04/14/2025 07:00
The US, China and the Fractured Age, Released: 04/14/2025 07:00
Auto Market Weekly: Week of April 14th, Released: 04/14/2025 10:00
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report: April 2025, Released: 04/14/2025 04:00
JPMorgan Weekly Market Recap: Week of April 14th, Released: 04/14/2025 07:00