Econ Mornings: April 21st, 2025
Macro releases and commentary released the morning of April 21th, 2025
(all times are in EST)
PBOC Holds Loan Rates
Released: April 20, 2025 21:15 - Link
The People's Bank of China opted to maintain its loan prime rates in April, leaving the 1-year rate at 3.1% and the 5-year rate at 3.6%, signaling a pause in monetary policy adjustments following a period of stability since October 2024. This decision likely reflects ongoing assessments of economic conditions and a cautious approach to stimulating growth, with officials seemingly content with the current level of financial support rather than initiating further easing measures. The unchanged rates suggest a desire for continued predictability in borrowing costs for businesses and households, and potentially indicate a view that existing policies are sufficient to navigate the evolving economic landscape.
Gasoline Prices Show Modest Retreat
Released: April 21, 2025 09:00 - Link
Gasoline prices retreated modestly last week, with the national average falling 3.4 cents to $3.10, reflecting a complex interplay of factors despite a 1.8-cent MoM uptick. While current prices remain significantly lower YoY, down 54.6 cents, the recent trend shows a slight recovery from the lows seen earlier this year. Diesel prices also eased, decreasing 2.7 cents to $3.519, and the persistent gap between the national average and the median price of $2.96 suggests uneven regional impacts and potentially varied consumer behavior.
Leading Economic Index Signals Economic Caution
Released: April 21, 2025 10:00
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index experienced a sharper-than-anticipated 0.7% MoM decrease in March, reaching 100.5, signaling continued economic caution ahead of planned tariff implementations. While the six-month decline has decelerated from -2.3% to -1.2%, the current weakness, particularly in consumer expectations, stock market performance, and manufacturing orders, reflects heightened uncertainty. Despite these headwinds, concurrent data showing a slight MoM increase in the Coincident Economic Index and a marginal MoM decrease in the Lagging Economic Index, coupled with the Conference Board's assessment, suggest that an imminent recession remains unlikely.
Softening Labor Demand and Wage Pressures
Released: April 21, 2025 11:00
March's SCE Labor Market Survey reveals a noticeable shift in worker sentiment, suggesting softening labor demand and moderating wage pressures. Declining satisfaction with compensation, benefits, and promotion prospects, coupled with a drop in the anticipated likelihood of receiving job offers, now at its lowest point since mid-2023, points to reduced bargaining power for employees. A significant retreat in the average reservation wage, particularly among experienced workers, reinforces this trend, while diminishing expectations regarding continued employment past typical retirement ages further indicate a lessening urgency to remain in current roles and potentially reflect broader concerns about future economic prospects.
Other data releases and commentary:
Average Decline in GDP and EPS During Recessions, Released: 04/21/2025 07:00
Auto Market Weekly: Week of April 21st, Released: 04/21/2025 10:00
JPMorgan Weekly Market Recap: Week of April 21st, Released: 04/21/2025 07:00
How Effectively Can the U.S. Economy Untether From China?, Released: 4/21/2025 8:00