Econ Mornings: April 25th, 2025
Macro releases and commentary released the morning of April 25th, 2025
(all times are in EST)
UK Consumer Confidence Declines
Released: April 24, 2025 19:00 - Link
April's GfK UK Consumer Confidence Index revealed a softening in sentiment, dropping 4 points to -23, driven primarily by declines in perceptions of both present and prospective economic conditions. While concerns about personal finances over the past year eased slightly MoM, forecasts for the next 12 months worsened, mirroring broader anxieties about the economy's trajectory, particularly concerning the significant YoY drop in the future economic conditions index. The diminished appetite for major purchases, as reflected in the Major Purchase Index, suggests consumers remain cautious despite some improvement compared to last year's levels, potentially signaling headwinds for retail spending.
UK Retail Sales Rise Unexpectedly
Released: April 25, 2025 02:00 - Link
March retail sales figures for the UK revealed an unexpected uptick, with volumes rising 0.4% MoM and 2.6% YoY, defying forecasts of a contraction. While February's gain was modestly revised lower, the broader picture remains positive, as Q1 2025 sales demonstrated the strongest quarterly expansion since mid-2021. Encouragingly, gains were broad-based, particularly within non-food categories like clothing and outdoor retailers, which benefited from favorable weather conditions, alongside robust performance in other non-food and non-store retail. Conversely, food and household goods sales weighed on the overall result, experiencing notable declines MoM, suggesting a potential shift in consumer spending patterns.
French Business Climate Shows Mixed Signals
Released: April 25, 2025 02:45 - Link
France's business climate indicator edged down 0.2 points MoM to 96.4 in April, signaling ongoing fragility despite some encouraging signs. While the manufacturing sector demonstrated resilience with a 3.4-point gain driven by easing order book contractions, and the service sector saw a modest 0.9-point uptick reflecting improved activity and demand, construction and, notably, retail trade experienced declines, with the latter registering its weakest reading since July 2024. An uptick in the employment indicator, reaching a three-month high, provides a glimmer of optimism amidst a mixed bag of sectoral performance.
French Manufacturing Sector Accelerates in Q2 2025
Released: April 25, 2025 03:45 - Link
France's manufacturing sector demonstrated notable momentum in Q2 2025, evidenced by a substantial 12-point surge in demand expectations and a 6-point increase in demand growth MoM. Gains in both domestic and foreign demand, alongside a rise in capacity utilization to 82% and significantly improved investment expectations, suggest an accelerating expansion. While hiring difficulties are moderating, remaining above historical averages, the decline to the lowest level in four years points toward easing labor market pressures, indicating a potentially more sustainable period of growth for the sector.
Canadian Manufacturing Sales Decline
Released: April 25, 2025 08:30 - Link
Canadian manufacturers experienced a notable setback in March, with advance estimates revealing a 1.9% MoM sales decline, marking the most significant contraction since October 2023 and undershooting consensus forecasts. Subsector performance was largely driven by weakness in petroleum and coal products, primary metals, and transportation equipment, suggesting broad-based challenges within the industrial sector. The estimate, based on a weighted response rate of 67.5%, indicates potential headwinds for Canadian industrial output in the near term and warrants close monitoring of subsequent data releases to gauge the extent and persistence of this downturn.
Canadian Retail Sales Decline, Core Sales Show Strength
Released: April 25, 2025 08:30 - Link
February's Canadian retail sales contracted -0.4% MoM, extending the downward trend following a -0.6% MoM drop in January, primarily driven by weakness in motor vehicle and parts dealers. While headline sales faltered, core retail sales demonstrated resilience, rising 0.5% MoM thanks to strong gains in food and beverage and general merchandise, partially offset by declines in furniture and clothing. Unexpectedly, sales at gasoline stations and fuel vendors continued their upward trajectory for a fifth month, signaling ongoing shifts in consumer behavior. However, the initial indication of a robust 0.7% MoM increase in March suggests a potential rebound and a strong finish to the first quarter.
Consumer Sentiment Declines Amid Inflation Concerns
Released: April 25, 2025 10:00
Consumer sentiment took a notable downturn in April, with the final Index reading falling 8.4% MoM to 52.2, driven by declines in both current conditions and, more significantly, expectations, which have plummeted 32% since January. The sharp rise in year-ahead inflation expectations to 6.5%, the highest since 1981, alongside a concerning uptick in long-run expectations, particularly among independent voters, indicates a growing unease among consumers despite a brief easing following the tariff pause.
Kansas City Services Sector Shows Unexpected Strength
Released: April 25, 2025 11:00 - Link
The Kansas City services sector demonstrated surprising strength in April, with the composite index reaching its highest level this year, driven by robust YoY growth in both consumer and business services. While sales remained stable, hinting at a tempered demand response, a notable shift occurred with employment and hours worked moving into slight expansion. Importantly, inflationary pressures are emerging, as evidenced by significant increases in both input and selling prices, suggesting a potential upward adjustment in overall price levels within the region and warranting close monitoring moving forward.
Q1 2025 GDP Growth Nowcast Edges Up
Released: April 25, 2025 11:45
The New York Fed's nowcast for Q1 2025 GDP growth edged up to 2.63%, reflecting minor tailwinds from increased new home construction, and a modest strengthening in manufacturers' durable goods new orders and shipments. These incremental improvements suggest continued, albeit moderate, economic expansion in the near term, although the overall revision remains relatively small compared to previous updates.
Other data releases and commentary:
UK trade with the United States: 2024, Released: 04/25/2025 02:00
Navigating the Skies: Market Disparity in ASEAN, Released: 04/25/2025 06:00
Trade Between China and the US Collapsing, Released: 04/25/2025 07:00
One book, two books, Red Book, Blue Book, Released: 04/25/2025 12:00