Econ Mornings: April 28th, 2025
Macro releases and commentary released the morning of April 28th, 2025
(all times are in EST)
Spain's Labor Market Shows Q1 Contraction
Released: April 28, 2025 03:00 - Link
Spain's labor market presented a mixed picture in Q1 2025, with headline employment figures declining -0.42% QoQ, driven primarily by a significant drop in services and a contraction in full-time positions largely attributable to reductions in public sector roles. While annual employment remains robust, up 515.4k YoY, the quarter witnessed a concerning spike in unemployment, rising 75 bps to 11.36% and marking the largest Q1 increase in over a decade; this divergence is further complicated by seasonally adjusted data which initially suggested a positive QoQ change before revealing a more substantial -0.73% contraction when properly accounting for seasonal fluctuations, highlighting underlying weaknesses despite a rise in part-time roles.
Spain's Retail Sales: Mixed Monthly Performance
Released: April 28, 2025 03:00 - Link
March retail sales in Spain presented a mixed picture, declining slightly at 0.2% MoM despite a robust 3.6% rise YoY, mirroring February's annual growth. The downturn was primarily driven by a 0.7% MoM drop in non-food sales, partially offset by a modest 0.5% MoM increase in food sales; excluding gas, sales edged up 0.2% MoM. Encouragingly, retail employment continued its upward trend, climbing 0.4% MoM and 1.0% YoY, with notable gains in small chains and department stores, suggesting underlying strength in the labor market despite the headline sales figures.
India's Industrial Production Shows Modest Growth
Released: April 28, 2025 05:30 - Link
March industrial production data revealed a modest acceleration in India's industrial sector, rising 3.0% YoY, though falling short of consensus forecasts. Gains were broad-based, with manufacturing mirroring the headline figure and electricity generation exhibiting robust growth at 6.3% YoY. Construction goods and consumer durables led the expansion, while consumer non-durables experienced a notable decline of -4.7% YoY, primarily driven by a significant contraction in food production at -8.0%. Despite this weakness, India's largest industrial segment, basic metals, posted a healthy 6.9% YoY increase, suggesting underlying strength within the industrial base, albeit unevenly distributed.
Retail Sales Rebound Masks Underlying Weakness
Released: April 28, 2025 06:00 - Link
April's CBI Distributive Trades Survey revealed a surprising rebound in retail sales volumes, rising from a deeply negative -41% to -8%, though the expected return to contraction in May at -33% suggests underlying fragility persists. While sales relative to the time of year improved slightly, remaining judged as “poor” at -31%, wholesale sales continued to deteriorate, pulling back overall total sales, which remain in contraction at -26%. The persistent build-up of retail inventories, currently standing at 21%, indicates retailers anticipate ongoing, subdued demand throughout the coming months.
Canadian Wholesale Trade Declines in March
Released: April 28, 2025 08:30 - Link
Canada's wholesale trade experienced a preliminary 0.3% MoM decrease in March, marking the initial contraction in activity since August 2024, driven by weakness across a majority of subsectors. While a downturn isn't inherently concerning, the revised estimate warrants close observation given the comparatively low weighted response rate of 64.8%, considerably below the 12-month average of 82.2%, which introduces potential for significant revisions as the data is finalized and more responses are collected.
Gas Prices Remain Stable, Trend Downward
Released: April 28, 2025 09:00 - Link
Gas prices remained stable nationally last week, holding steady at $3.10, though the trend remains downward with MoM prices falling by 3.8 cents and YoY prices significantly lower by 52.6 cents. Diesel prices also softened, declining 2.0 cents to $3.499. The wide gap between the national average and the median price of $2.96, which also held unchanged, suggests regional variations continue to influence the overall market, and consumers are generally benefiting from considerably lower prices compared to a year prior.
US Housing Market Softens Amid Rising Rental Vacancies
Released: April 28, 2025 10:00
Q1 2025 data reveals a softening US housing market, characterized by a rise in rental vacancies to 7.1% alongside a decline in the homeownership rate to 65.1%, the lowest level observed since late 2019. While the total housing stock expanded YoY by 1.6%, with 89.5% of units currently occupied, the drop in homeownership suggests ongoing affordability challenges and shifts in household formation, potentially impacting broader consumer spending and construction activity. The homeowner vacancy rate remained stable at 1.1%, signaling limited turnover within the owner-occupied sector.
Texas Manufacturing Declines Amid Rising Prices
Released: April 28, 2025 10:30 - Link
Texas manufacturers experienced a significant deterioration in April, as evidenced by a sharp decline in the General Business Activity Index to its lowest level since early 2020, mirroring weakness across key indicators including new orders, production, and company outlook. Concurrently, rising raw materials and finished goods prices, alongside a marked increase in outlook uncertainty, suggest inflationary pressures are reemerging and adding to the challenges facing the sector, potentially signaling broader headwinds for the regional economy.
Other data releases and commentary:
France Jobseekers: March 2025, Released: 04/28/2025 00:00
China’s Domestic Car Market to Stay Resilient Despite US Tariffs, Released: 04/28/2025 05:00
Latin America and the Caribbean Economic Review, April 2025: Organized Crime and Violence in Latin America and the Caribbean, Released: 04/28/2025 06:00
Autos Play a Key Role in US Trade, Released: 04/28/2025 07:00
Dollar dominance will persist in a world without alternatives, Released: 04/28/2025 07:00
Auto Market Weekly: Week of April 28th, Released: 04/28/2025 10:00
Global Leveraged Finance Outlook Revised to Deteriorating from Neutral, Released: 04/28/2025 10:30
JPMorgan Weekly Market Recap: Week of April 28th, Released: 04/28/2025 07:00
Jet Fuel Price Monitor: Week of April 25th, Released: 04/28/2025 12:00